We officially have eight games left in the football season (counting the College National Championship), and man has it truly been a fun season. The first set of football action we will get this weekend is the Saturday Divisional Round slate. Saturday gives us one game from each side of the conference. The AFC will have the Houston Texans in Arrowhead to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The NFC game has the Washington Commanders on the road in Michigan as they play the Detroit Lions.
Here are my plays for the NFL Saturday Divisional Round slate of games.
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod and Captain By A Hook for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Chiefs -8.5 (-108)
I just can’t get myself to not take the Chiefs, especially after what happened to the Houston Texans in their last two games (not counting Titans game where starters rested) and the Chiefs playoff history. Christmas day, the Houston Texans got absolutely destroyed by the Baltimore Ravens by the score of 31-2. The defensive players came out and said they were truly embarrassed by that performance. How did they make up for this? The defensive effort against the Chargers was truly an impressive one by the Texans. Now coming into this game, that edge the Texans had could be gone. Along with that, the Houston Texans offensive line has been a massive issue.
As for the Chiefs, how can you not take them? I feel as if the defense will get enough stops, and I expect Mahomes and the offense to get rolling after a rusty start to the game. I could see the Chiefs holding the Texans to under at least 17 points, so we are just asking for the Chiefs to score 28 if that’s the case. KC also won 27-19 in their last matchup against the Texans this season.
Commanders +9.5 (-110)
My main reason for taking the Commanders is they’ve just played an insanely amount of close games this season. On Captain By A Hook this morning with my boy Rowan, I read out their schedule since the Panthers game on October 20. Since that time, every single game but two or three was a one score game. To go along with that, the Lions have struggled in recent history against mobile quarterbacks. Another thing I’m worried about the Lions defense just a tad. With how bad Sam Darnold looked against the Rams, I am wondering if the Lions defense has improved, or Sam Darnold just had a horrible game.
I see this as a backdoor situation. This game will be around the 7-14 (depending who has the lead) range for a majority of the game. I could see the Lions pulling a head late by double digits, allowing for the Commanders to get a garbage time touchdown to make the score a cover. Similar to the Chiefs, it’s hard to fade the Lions way they’ve been playing. However, Jayden Daniels had truly been special this season, and has found ways to keep the Commanders in it.
Props & Game Specials
Travis Kelce over 51.5 receiving yards (-113) and over 5.5 receptions (-132)
This is the time of year that the Chiefs have been waiting for. Now that they are in the playoffs, the Chiefs can unleash Kelce. Patrick Mahomes has already come out and said he “expects Kelce to step up in the playoffs,” so I expect a lot more targets headed Kelce’s way.
Samaje Perine over 9.5 receiving yards (-113)
This number feels like a good get. They have lines up for the other two running backs (Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt) for the Chiefs as well, but the other two feel like a trap. Based on the previous few weeks I like Perines chances to hit his over. He is the third down back as well, so that doesn’t hurt our chances either.
Here are the last three games of receptions and receiving yards for each back (from most recent to oldest):
- Pacheco: (0 for 0, 1 for -1, 1 for 15)
- Hunt: (0 for 0, 2 for 24, 1 for 4)
- Perine: (1 for 13, 2 for 20, 3 for 50)
Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 pass touchdowns (-144)
I expect the Chiefs to score around 24-28 points in this game. Only reason I see this getting screwed over is if the Chiefs decide to rush the ball when they get into the red zone. If that is not the case, I love Mahomes over.
Dynami Brown over 2.5 receptions (-215)
Brown has hit this over now in five straight games (4-3-4-3-5 receptions) putting him on an NBA JAM (for those of you who are new, NBA JAMS are bets that hit in three plus game consecutively, making them “on fire” just like the video game). If you know anything about us at Stare Down Sports, we love a good heater, and we love NBA JAMS.
Gave this our Wednesday at way better odds than it is currently, but I will honor the bet and keep it.
Tim Patrick over 1.5 receptions (-114)
The end of the season Tim Patrick run has been great for us. While the Lions do spread the ball out a lot, Patrick has been a really reliable target for Goff to check down to or hit in the middle of the field. To go along with that, Patrick has hit this over in 6 of the last 7 games. If this becomes a shootout, this over should not be too difficult to hit.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 81.5 rush yards (-113)
I am taking this over solely for the fact I have no idea how much David Montgomery will play. With no David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs was truly just eating up yards on the ground. Gibbs has hit this over in the last three games, of course with David Montgomery missing. Assuming they give Gibbs two carries to Montgomery’s one, I like the chances for this over to hit.
Zach Ertz over 29.5 receiving yards (-113)
When it came to the receiving yard props, all of the numbers in this game felt either a tad too high for my liking, or were just perfect enough to scare me away. With Zach Ertz being the safety blanket for Jayden Daniels, this gives him a lot of good chances to get smaller chunk yards (10-20 yard receptions). If Zach Ertz can get over three plus receptions, there’s a good chance this over hits. His history shows that anything lower than three might become an issue.
Here are the three game specials that I like for these two games:
- Derrick Henry and James Cook to each have 5+ rushing yards each quarter (+370)
- Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to combine for 200+ rushing and 2+ touchdowns (+700)
- Travis Kelce 10+ receiving yards each quarter (+1100)
Anytime touchdown scorers
Travis Kelce +165 & 2x +1400
Nico Collins +180
Jahmyr Gibbs -250 or David Montgomery -175
Zach Ertz +270
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
We have been on a bit of a dry streak. I think I figured out the reason why, so we will try that tweak here on Saturday.
I was able to get odds of +802 boosted to +1043 with a 30% boost:
- Tim Patrick over 1.5 receptions (-114)
- Dynami Brown over 2.5 receptions (-215)
- Travis Kelce over 51.5 receiving yards (-113)
- Samaje Perine over 9.5 receiving yards (-113)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler
Season Stats
College Football straights Record (regular season): 87-71-1
College Football player props record 28-24
Bowl Season & CFP College Football: 20-9
Pickem Record: 193-79
NFL bets (straights) [regular season] 86-65-1
NFL Bets (Touchdown scorers) [regular season] 178-195
NFL Bets (Player Props) [regular season] 121-92
Nasty Boy Play (College) : 1-18 {down 40.95)
Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 6-43 {up 584.3}
NFL PLAYOFF (straights) 4-2
(Props) 10-7
(TD scorers) 6-8
Saturday Divisional Round
Saturday Divisional Round
Saturday Divisional Round
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