Sunday Night gives us the AFC Championship game, as we see the Buffalo Bills traveling to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl? Can Josh Allen finally get that playoff win over the Chiefs and Mahomes??
Here are my plays for the AFC Championship game
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod and Captain By A Hook for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Chiefs money line (-125)
This game is basically a pickem, and I will be going with the Chiefs. I will say though, this feels like Buffalos best chance to get them. The Bills have been playing some great football in the playoffs, and if the Chiefs come out slow like they can from time to time, this will really favor the Bills if they can take advantage. However, I just can’t get myself there. With Josh Allen and the Bills being 0-3 to Mahomes in the Playoffs, I just can’t get over that history. I fell as if this will be a close game, with the Chiefs yet again finding another way to win. I see this game being in the lower 20s when it comes to scoring (23-20 for example), so it will be fun to see which team can get the early lead, and then control the pace of the game from there.
Props and game specials
Travis Kelce over 66.5 (-113) receiving yards & over 6.5 (-105) receptions
Kelce has been a machine in the playoffs. With him being the main target for Patrick Mahomes, I expect him to have yet another big game here. In his last 14 playoff games, Travis Kelce is averaging 99.1 yards per game.
Xavier Worthy over 47.5 receiving yards (-120) & over 4.5 receptions (-148)
Worthy was the top receiver against the Bills last time these two teams played. While I expect Kelce to be the leader in this game, Worthy has proved himself as a valuable and reliable target. I project him to get around 50 yards, so I like that this number is below that. I also project him for around 4 to 5 receptions, so I will gamble and take the over 4.5 receptions. This number moved a tad as well, so the Nasty Boy will look a bit weird with the odds.
Amari Cooper over 17.5 receiving yards (-113) & over 1.5 receptions (-114)
These numbers just feel too low. Cooper is a way better receiver than these numbers show. Along with that, Trent McDuffie will most likely be splitting time in the slot (covering Khalil Shakir) and then time on the outside covering Cooper. With that happening, I expect Cooper to at least get two receptions, which SHOULD allow for him to hit this over of 16.5 yards.
Marquise Brown over 39.5 receiving yards (-113) & over 3.5 receptions (-128)
With how little Brown has been involved so far on the offense, I will be taking his over in this game assuming that will change. This feels like an all hands on deck game versus the Bills.
Noah Gray over 14.5 receiving yards (-114) & over 1.5 receptions (-168)
Gray usually gets around one to three receptions a game. While the yards may vary, he is usually good do these numbers. I love the receptions over, and I am a tad nervous about the yardage, since playoff time = Travis Kelce time. I was able to get over 14.5 receiving yards, but by the time I published the article it moved to 17.5 yards, which I just don’t want to mess with based on the last few games.
Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rush attempts (-132) & over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-154)
I project the Chiefs to score around 21-24 points, which gives Mahomes the ability to have three chances to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns. As for the rush attempts, we are going with the same logic we did last week. Kneel downs count as rush attempts, and I like the rush attempt prop over the rushing yards prop.
Isaiah Pacheco over 8.5 rush attempts (+108)
I expect Pacheco to get a bit more work in this game. While he and Kareem Hunt have basically been splitting time, I expect Pacheco to get the lean and get a few more carries this game.
Each team 1+ passing touchdowns & 1+ rushing touchdowns (+240)
I love this bet at the odds. Josh Allen is a rushing quarterback, so I love the ability for the Bills to get this done. As for the Chiefs, they usually end up with a rushing touchdown in games, so that just leaves Mahomes to throw for a touchdown, which they will need if the Chiefs want to win.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Travis Kelce +120
Travis Kelce 2x +900
Josh Allen -115
Xavier Worthy +190
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
We will have two Nasty Boys, one each of the AFC & NFC Championship Games. I was able to get odds of +931 boosted to +1210 with a 30% boost:
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown +120
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown -115
- Xavier Worthy over 50+ receiving yards (-125)
- Travis Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (-113)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler
Season stats
College Football straights Record (regular season): 87-71-1
College Football player props record 33-29
Bowl Season & CFP College Football: 21-11
Pickem Record: 193-79
NFL bets (straights) [regular season] 86-65-1
NFL Bets (Touchdown scorers) [regular season] 178-195
NFL Bets (Player Props) [regular season] 121-92
Nasty Boy Play (College) : 1-18 {down 40.95)
Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 6-45 {up 554.3}
NFL PLAYOFF (straights) 6-4
(Props) 19-13
(TD scorers) 20-14
AFC Championship Game AFC Championship Game AFC Championship Game
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