The NFC Championship Game gives us a a good ol battle between NFC East rivals. The Washington Commanders travel on the road to Lincoln Financial Field, as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles. The season series is tied 1-1, meaning this game is for all of the bragging rights.
Here are my plays for the NFC Championship Game.
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod and Captain By A Hook for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Commanders +6.5 (-120)
This feels like it will be a close game, so I love being able to get 6.5 points with the Commanders. In the two games these two played this season, the scores were 26-18 and 36-33. The Commanders have also been playing some really good football, and have rallied behind the “nobody believes in us” slogan. Another reason I love Washington so much is the Jalen Hurts injury. He is clearly not 100%, so it’s gonna be interesting to see which version of him that we get.
I also loved what I saw from the Rams last game against the Eagles, which helps correlate in this game. When the Rams went up tempo, that made the Eagles defense truly struggle at points. With this Commanders offense being one of if not the fastest operating offenses in the NFL (they run a lot of no huddle), this should help give them the edge.
Props & game specials
Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rush yards (-113)
Similar to last week, I love how low this number is. Gainwell is talented enough to get this is one or two carries. The only fear for this over not hitting is Gainwell getting no carries.
Brian Robinson over 37.5 rush yards (-113)
We will need a chunk run out of Robinson for me to feel amazing about this bet. He does have some games where he has struggled to get it going (10 for 16 and 10 for 24 games against other teams), but he has hit this over in one of the two games the Eagles have played. Robinson should be getting about 10-15 carries, so we just need one big run to make this number doable.
Austin Ekeler over 18.5 rush yards (-113)
With the Commander’s rotating backs, I love how low this number is. Along with that, Ekeler missed a few weeks towards the end of the season due to a concussion. While injuries suck, this may have been a blessing in disguise as it allowed his legs to get a little bit more rest before the playoffs. Ekeler has hit this over in both playoff games so far, so I look for him to do it again.
Jayden Daniels over 1.5 pass touchdowns (+126)
I also like for Hurts to hit over 1.5 passing touchdowns, but the injury sort of scares me a bit. As for Daniels, he threw for five passing touchdowns last time these two teams played. With this game having a chance to be in the high 20’s even low 30’s for both of these teams, I like for Daniels to hit this over.
Terry McLaurin over 63.5 receiving yards (-113)
I wanted to take his over last game and did not, which of course meant that it hit. As for this game, the script could help out in this over hitting. If Commanders go down, they will need the receivers to get back into the game. The Eagles also struggled a bit late when the Rams when no huddle, so that also gives the Commanders and their fast paced offense the edge. McLaurin has gone for 89 and 87 receiving yards in the two playoffs games as well, so I like where this number is at.
Zach Ertz over 33.5 receiving yards (-113) & over 3.5 receptions (-144)
Ertz has been the safety blanket all year for Daniels. Coming into this game, I expect more of the same for Ertz. I am a bit nervous about his yardage total I’ll admit, but I do love the receptions number.
Saquon Barkley over 13.5 receiving yards (-113)
This number feels just a tad too low for the playoffs. Last game out, he had four receptions for 27 yards. If Barkley takes over for a few of the Kenneth Gainwell plays (he did last game and was able to get some receiving action) then I like for this number to hit. However, history does show that sometimes Barkley is non existent in the passing game.
Dynami Brown over 3.5 receptions (-120)
This over hit for last week and we’re going back to the well again this week. With Zacceaus dealing with injury, I expect Brown to continue to get work as the wide receiver two.
Jayden Daniels & Jalen hurts to each record 10+ pass yards each quarter (-110)
This is even odds (well it was when I took it, now dropping to -110), so I love the bet. Unless each team has super long drives to kill time and the other has a three and out, I do not see how this doesn’t hit. Both of these quarterbacks also have great receiving weapons , which allows for even more of a chance to get 10+ pass yards.
AJ Brown & Terry McLaurin over 5+ receiving yards each quarter (+2000)
This is just an odds play. Both of these guys are the number one receiver, so for +2600 (I took it at this Thursday, since has dropped to +2000), 5+ yards each quarter feels like a good deal.
Each team 1+ passing touchdowns & 1+ rushing touchdowns (+220)
This is probably my favorite bet of the game. Both quarterbacks are mobile (although Hurts might be injured) and both teams have good running backs, with Saquon being great. That just leaves us to need each quarterback to throw for a touchdown, which they have in both times these teams have played.
Anytime touchdown scorers
Saquon Barkley -270
Saquon Barkley 2+ touchdowns +210
Jalen Hurts -135
Terry McLaurin +135
Zach Ertz +280
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
We will have two Nasty Boys, one each of the AFC & NFC Championship Games. I was able to get odds of +794:
- Terry McLaurin over 63.5 receiving yards (-113)
- Dynami Brown over 3.5 receptions (-120)
- Dallas Goedert over 40+ receiving yards (-113)
- Austin Ekeler over 40+ rushing & receiving yards (-170)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler
Season Stats
College Football straights Record (regular season): 87-71-1
College Football player props record 33-29
Bowl Season & CFP College Football: 21-11
Pickem Record: 193-79
NFL bets (straights) [regular season] 86-65-1
NFL Bets (Touchdown scorers) [regular season] 178-195
NFL Bets (Player Props) [regular season] 121-92
Nasty Boy Play (College) : 1-18 {down 40.95)
Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 6-45 {up 554.3}
NFL PLAYOFF (straights) 6-4
(Props) 19-13
(TD scorers) 20-14
NFC Championship Game NFC Championship Game NFC Championship Game
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