You can smell the fresh cut grass from here. We are about 36 hours away from the NFL season kicking off. The road to Super Bowl 60 will get underway in Philadelphia tomorrow night. Here are my NFL Bets for Week 1.
This will be a weekly installment, 15+ NFL bets every week. I am going to break it into three different categories. My favorite 5 sides, my favorite 5 totals, and my favorite 5+ player props for the week.
Let me do the work so you don’t have too, just bet it, forget it, and then sweat it.
5+ Player Props
Start this off on Friday night in Brazil. The Chiefs are taking on the Chargers and I am looking at two plays in this game. We all know how great Travis Kelce is and can be, however, I am going to be square and look to his back up in week 1. I believe we see more of a role for Noah Gray this season as Kelce saves some gas for the postseason. Give me Noah Gray over his receiving yards, sitting at 18.5. Then at almost 2 to 1 odds give me the running back that runs with an attitude to get it in the end zone, Isaiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown +195.
Noah Gray Over 18.5 Rec Yards. Isaiah Pacheco Anytime TD +195.
Let’s move and groove onto the Sunday slate, still looking at player props. I have four more receiving totals I like the over on as well as two more anytime touchdown scorers for Week 1.
The Washington Commanders take on the New York Giants this Sunday and while I might look for Washington and their players to take a step down from last season’s miracle run. The New York Football Giants ain’t gonna be the team to slow them down much. Give me Terry McLaurin to go over his receiving total and get in the end zone.
Terry McLaurin Over 60.5 Rec Yards. Terry McLaurin Anytime TD +125.
The other three wide outs I have having a big game in Week 1 are Xavier Legette for the Carolina Panthers. Look for this game to turn into an absolute shootout, more on this later.
The New Orleans Saints will take on the Arizona Cardinals who are set to have a great defense and a good season. Even if the Saints do not produce much on offense, look for Chris Olave to get 6+ targets. I am going to bet his receiving yards over, expecting him to get 4+ catches.
Then there is Monday Night Football, Bears and Vikings. Two second year quarterbacks with some pressure on their back. Give me a close competitive game with D.J. Moore being a difference maker for Chicago.
Xavier Legette Over 34.5 Rec Yards. Chris Olave Over 49.5 Rec Yards. D.J. Moore Over 57.5 Rec Yards.
To wrap up the player props for Week 1, I have the Denver Broncos absolutely destroying the Tennessee Titans. Which means a lot of running the ball in my eyes. Give me J.K. Dobbins to get on the score board in this one.
J.K. Dobbins Anytime TD +155.
NFL BETS WEEK 1
Favorite 5 Sides
Now that the props are out of the way, let’s get old fashion. Who will cover this week to open the season?
The Washington Commanders line has dropped to 5.5 which I love and will probably add to this list sometime before the kick off. However, it is not one of my original 5 favorite sides for Week 1.
The Kansas City Chiefs are probably going to win the game Friday night in Brazil, however I think 3 points is a little too much. I have this game being won on a last second field goal, 19-17, 23-21 type of deal. I will take the 3 points with the Chargers.
As long as Pittsburgh is laying less than 3, right now it is -2.5, it is one of my favorite bets this weekend. Although Rodgers has a history of stinking it up Week 1, this season shall be very different. Give me the Steelers defense making the difference.
Speaking of defense, Seattle might have one of the top defense’s in the NFL this season, however, I believe that offense will take some time to get rolling. San Francisco only laying 2.5 might be a square play, however, I will be on it.
The Houston Texans travel to LA on Sunday to take on the Rams. I love the potential of an old fashion shoot out in this one. I’ll be on the total of this game as well, and with Houston’s defense being the best unit on the field in my opinion, I’ll also back the Texans taking 3 points.
Monday Night Football, where legends are born. We have Caleb Williams against a nasty, gnarly Minnesota Vikings defense on Monday Night. Maybe this is where I let the gut influence me too much, I like the Bears to pull this thing off with an historic performance from Williams late.
Los Angeles Chargers +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -2.5
Houston Texans +3
Chicago Bears ML -106
NFL BETS WEEK 1
Favorite 5 Totals
Start this off on Thursday Night in Philly. Two high powered offenses with only one high powered defense. I will take the Eagles scoring at ease while the Cowboys will have flashes on offense, enough to score a few times. Give me a blowout and the over in this one.
These next two are my two favorite bets out of all of these bets for Week 1. Two games with four teams searching for identity, both of these games will have a video game like final score. Give me the over on both the Carolina, Jacksonville game and the Miami, Indianapolis game.
I spoke earlier on the Houston Texans and the LA Rams game and it’s shootout potential. I’ll take the over on that game as well.
You can’t bet totals in the NFL without at least one under, right? I am going to set my sights on a NFC South matchup. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the offense has been great, is going into this season with their 3rd offensive coordinator in three years and a wide receiver room full of injuries. On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons will rely heavy on the run and have not been a high scoring team in the last 5+ seasons. Give me an old fashion whoever has the ball last will win it type of game, and ultimately the Under will hit.
Over 47.5 Dallas Cowboys v Philadelphia Eagles.
Over 46.5 Carolina Panthers v Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 46.5 Miami Dolphins v Indianapolis Colts
Over 44.5 Houston Texans v LA Rams
Under 47.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Atlanta Falcons
Please take all of these wagers at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly.
And remember parlays are for losers.
See you guys here next week, same day, same time!
Rowan Donaghey, Sports Reporter and Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can follow him on X via @RowanDonaghey
Follow Stare Down Sports on X for all of the latest news and updates @StareDownSports
Photo Curtesy of @CommandersMuse on X
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