Super Bowl LIX is upon us. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking for a three peat, while the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to avenge their loss from two years ago.
Here are my best bets (straights and player props) for Super Bowl LIX.
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod and Fridays episode of Captain By A Hook for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Chiefs money line (-124)
I just can’t get myself to not take the Chiefs. They are back for the third year in a row, and looking to be the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row. I won’t be shocked if either team wins, I will just be putting my faith in the Chiefs. I expect this game to come down to the fourth quarter being super close, then it will come down to the team that does not make the big mistake. This is a tough choice, but I will be on the side of history, and I’ll be taking the Chiefs to three peat.
The Chiefs will need to stop the Eagles ground game, and will need to protect Mahomes from the Eagles pash rush. As for the Eagles, they will need to stop the Chiefs rushing attack, along with containing the Mahomes scrambles. Those should be the team’s main focus in my opinion.
Props
Patrick Mahomes over 5.5 rush attempts (+100)
This might be my favorite bet of the weekend. With Kareem Hunt having some miles on him, and Isiah Pacheco not seemingly to be fully healed, all hands will be needed in the running game. Mahomes seems to know the right time to run, and I expect he will need to run a good amount with this pass rush of the Eagles. Kneel downs count towards rush attempts as well, so that helps us out even more.
Mahomes has also hit this in the last two games played.
DeAndre Hopkins over 11.5 receiving yards (-110) & over 1.5 receptions (+126)
These totals just feel a bit too low. I expect there to be at least three or four plays drawn up for Hopkins, which should allow him to hit both of these totals.
Xavier Worthy over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)
I expect Worthy or Kelce to be the biggest receiver in this game for the Chiefs. This number is right at the cutoff of where I like it. I Project around 58-60 yards for Worthy, so I will take this over at 55.
Xavier Worthy over 5.5 rush yards (-122)
With how explosive Worthy has been, I like for his chances to hit this over. He has hit this over four of the last five games, with him also having only one game where he has a single carry. As long as he doesn’t get tackled on the backfield, I like for worthy to hit this over.
Travis Kelce over 60.5 receiving yards (-110) & over 6.5 receptions (+128)
Kelce went insane against the Houston Texans, then had a quiet game against the Buffalo Bills. Coming into Super Bowl LIX, I expect him to have a good game and be one of the main targets in the offense. I project him to have 7 receptions for about 70 yards and a touchdown, so I like both of these numbers. I will admit, I like the yardage a tad more than I like the receptions.
Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 pass touchdowns (-154)
I expect the Chiefs to score at least 24 points, and project Mahomes to have at least two passing touchdowns.
Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (-110) & over 4.5 receptions (-128)
The Chiefs were the worst team at covering the tight end all season. If that trend continues, then Goedert is in line for a good game. I like both of these numbers, and expect Goedert that have a 6 for 65 type of day.
Xavier Worthy to catch a pass first drive (+110)
Worthy had had a catch on the first drive in both playoff games. I will look for him to be in the gameplan again.
Dallas Goedert to catch a pass first drive (+120)
Similar to Worthy, Goedert has got targeted in the first drive of all games this playoff run (except for last week, since Barkley ran for a touchdown in the first play. Very next drive, Goedert got the ball).
Kareem Hunt over 43.5 rush yards (-110)
This feels like a good total for me. Between Hunt and Pacheco, Hunt has been the guy having the most success. He has hit this over in the last two games, and I expect he will be right around this number again. This isn’t my favorite bet out of all of these, but I do like this at any number under 50 yards.
Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rush yards in 4th quarter (-118)
This is a very low total in my opinion. I expect Mahomes to have one or two scrambles on the fourth on massive plays. If that is the case, 4.5 rush yards feels way too low.
Jalen Hurts over 6.5 rush yards in 4th quarter (-120)
Similar to above, I expect Hurts to have at least one or two scrambles on the fourth. With how athletic he is, he could easily hit this over. The tush push could also help us get a few yards.
Anytime touchdown scorers
There are three that I love, and four others I cant decide between:
Jalen Hurts -115
Saquon Barkley -190
Travis Kelce +125
Kareem Hunt +145 or Patrick Mahomes +400
Xavier Worthy +155 or DeAndre Hopkins +600
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
This is our final Nasty Boy of the football season. While we have been on a bit of a cold streak, it was an amazing season for us. Can we finish the year with one last W??
I was able to get odds of +1549:
- Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown (+145)
- DeAndre Hopkins over 1.5 receptions (+126)
- Patrick Mahomes over 4.5 rush yards in 4th quarter (-118)
- Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions (-128)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler
Season Stats
College Football straights Record (regular season): 87-71-1
College Football player props record 33-29
Bowl Season & CFP College Football: 21-11
Pickem Record: 193-79
NFL bets (straights) [regular season] 86-65-1
NFL Bets (Touchdown scorers) [regular season] 178-195
NFL Bets (Player Props) [regular season] 121-92
Nasty Boy Play (College) : 1-18 {down 40.95)
Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 6-45 {up 554.3}
NFL PLAYOFF (straights) 6-4
(Props) 19-13
(TD scorers) 20-14
Super Bowl LIX Super Bowl LIX Super Bowl LIX
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