Week 11 of the NFL is upon us, and it’s full of really good games this weekend. We have a lot of important matchups on the line, from division battles for first place, to battles for position in the Wildcard standings. Tomorrow’s games should really shake up some standings in the NFL after Week 11.
Here are my plays for the NFL Week 11 slate.
Check out the latest episode of the JCPod and Thursdays episode of Captain By A Hook for my full breakdowns. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Colts +4 (-110)
With Anthony Richardson back, I expect this Colts offense to have a little bit more juice. I’ll look for the Colts to be able to get the run game going against the Jets and for them to be able to keep this game close. The Colts season is basically on the line with this game, so I look for them to give an all effort to try and win this one.
Chiefs +2.5 (-115)
I love that we are getting the Chiefs at plus money, so I gotta take it. The Bills have been 3-0 in the regular season in their last matchups, while the Chiefs have been 3-0 in the playoffs. After that block field goal last week, I am just going to ride the Chiefs until they lose a game at this point. Mahomes record as a dog is also impeccable, so that makes me like this number even more.
Chargers moneyline (-126)
While I am very nervous about this play, I have loved what Harbaugh has done with the Chargers. They look like a whole new team, and I am going to take them here in this game. This is a very important game and has wildcard implications on the line, so expect both teams best. Tee Higgins return does scare me a bit.
Lions -13.5 (-115)
I just do not see how the Jaguars keep up on offense. With Mac Jones in for a second week, I expect more of the same from what we saw last week. I look for the Lions to score about 28 to 30 points, and I do not see the Jaguars getting past 14.
Vikings -5.5 (-120)
I’ll look for the Vikings defense to be able to give Will Levis a lot of problems. While the Titans have a good defense, their offense has been beyond inconsistent. The question mark of this game will be Sam Darnold. If he has another bad performance in this game, we may have to reevaluate him and move him down in the trust standings.
The games I like but can’t get myself to bet are Saints moneyline, Rams -4.5 points, Ravens -3 points and Broncos -1.5 points. I want to bet on these teams, but for one reason or another in each of these games I am not confident enough to bet it, so I’m staying off.
Props
Below are all of the props that I like for Sunday, in order of most favorite to least:
Anthony Richardson rush over 39.5 rush yards (-113)
The Steeler Special: Baltimore Ravens first half/ Steelers to win the game (+950)
Jameis over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+128)
Jahmyr Gibbs rush over 69.5 yards (-113)
Deandre Hopkins over 48.5 receiving yards (-113) & over 4.5 receptions ( +108)
Braelon Allen over 22.5 rush yards (-113)
De’Von Achane over 4.5 receptions (-138)C
Courtland Sutton over 55.5 receiving yards (-113)
Quentin Johnson over 3.5 receptions (+116)
Anytime touchdown scorers
Below are the guys I like to score this weekend:
Kareem Hunt (-115)
Jahmyr Gibbs (-180) or David Montgomery (-170)
Amon Ra St. Brown (+110)
Josh Jacobs (-110)
Jonathan Taylor (-115) or Anthony Richardson (+180)
De’Von Achane (-180)
Derrick Henry (-180)
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
We are going three props and a touchdown scorer for this Sunday Nasty Boy.
I was able to get odds of +963 boosted to +1204 with a 25% boost:
- Jahmyr Gibbs over 69.5 rush yards (-113)
- Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (-170)
- Anthony Richardson rush yards over 39.5 yards (-113)
- Deandre Hopkins over 48.5 receiving yards (-113)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
Season Stats
College Football straights Record (regular season): 64-52-1*
College Football player props record 11-8*
Pickem Record: 101-51
NFL bets (straights) [regular season] 46-38-1
NFL Bets (Touchdown scorers) [regular season] 84-92
NFL Bets (Player Props) [regular season] 55-40
Nasty Boy Play (College) : 0-11 {down 165)
Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 4-20 {up 494.60}
*College plays pending*
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler
NFL Week 11
NFL Week 11
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