Our First NFL Sunday of the season, and NFL Week One looks to be a good slate of games. As we know as well, there is most likely going to be one wild upset during the Sunday slate.
Here are my leans and best bets for the NFL Week One slate.
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from Fanatics, BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Straights
Texans moneyline (+100)
The Texans have Josh Allen’s number, as Josh Allen is currently one and four against the Texans. Due to that, I like that we are able to get them at plus money at home. As long as CJ Stroud doesn’t make any mistakes, I feel as if the Texans defense should be able to bottle up Josh Allen enough for Houston to win this game by score of about 20 to 17 range. 
Colts +3.5 (-120)
I like for the Colts to be able to keep this game within a field goal, potentially even winning the game outright. The Baltimore Ravens will be starting a center that is getting his first look at NFL action. the Colts have a very veteran and good defensive interior, so that could potentially help them wreck the game. I am a bit nervous about Lamar Jackson versus Lou Anaroumo’s defense, but I still think the Colts can put up enough points to keep this close.
Buccaneers +3.5 (-104)
I think that there is a really good chance that the Buccaneers could win this game on the road in Cincinnati. The Bengals are notorious for coming out to beyond slow starts to start the season, so what’s the reason to make me think that this is magically going to change this season? While their defense did get a couple of upgrades, I do not expect that to be enough to get the job done in the season opener. I like that we get the hook here, as I do think that this game could come down to a last-minute field goal.
Packers moneyline (+108)
I potentially think that the wrong team might be favored here. One thing that does have me scared is the Packers defense without Micah Parsons to start the season. The defense when they lost Micah Parsons truly did take a step back last season. However, that Packers offense could be good enough to help them win this game alone. I’m not too sure what to think of Kyle Murray to start out the season, but I don’t think he should be horrible in this opener. I won’t be shocked if the Vikings win this game, but I do think that the Packers have a really good chance of winning this game.
Steelers -4.5 (-125)
With Tua Tagovailoa out for this game, Cooper Rush will be starting for the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons do not have a good record playing in Pittsburgh, and I also do not think Mike McCarthy will lose the season opener and his debut. I expect for this Pittsburgh offense to be a little bit better than it was last season, so it just comes down to can the Pittsburgh defense get enough stops to win this game. I expect this game to be around a 24-14 type score with the Steelers getting the win.
Props/Touchdown Scorers
Tyler Warren over 45.5 recieving yards (-113)
With no Michael Pittman anymore for the Colts, I expect for Tyler Warren to eat up a lot of the middle of the field targets.
Parker Washington o52.5 receiving yards (-113)
There’s been a lot of talk this off-season about how much Liam Cohen loves Parker Washington. If that’s the case, I expect him to get some targets in Week One.
Juwan Johnson over 43.5 receiving yards (-113)
With no Jordan Tyson for the first two months of the season, I expect Juwan Johnson to be the number two target in this offense for the foreseeable futures. With this game looking to be a high scoring affair, I like for him to hit this over.
As for anytime touchdown scorers, I like: James Cook (+100), David Montgomery (-105), Ja’Marr Chase (-130), Tyler Warren (+210), D’Andre Swift (-140), Bhayshul Tuten (+140), DeVonta Smith (+180), MarShawn Lloyd (+125), Ladd McConkey (+130), & George Pickens (+155).
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
Rough start to the Nasty Boys to start the season. With this being Sunday action, we are going to go ahead and pick four touchdown scorers, with all of them being running backs.
I was able to get odds of +992 boosted to +1115 with a 20% boost:
- Bhayshul Tuten (+145)
- David Montgomery (-105)
- Omarion Hampton (-150)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (-285)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY!
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler and on YouTube
2026-2027 BETTING RECORDS
College Football straights record (regular season): 3-5
Pickem Record: 1-0
(straights) NFL Bets [regular season]
(Touchdown scorers) NFL Bets [regular season] 0-1
(Player Props) NFL Bets [regular season] 1-2
$10 Nasty Boy Play (College) : 0-2
$10 Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 0-1
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