We only have three games remaining, and two of them will be the AFC & NFC Championship Games being played on Sunday.
Here are my plays for the AFC & NFC Championship Games.
Check out the latest episodes of the JCPod for my full breakdowns and analysis. All odds are a mix/the best number from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
Straights
Patriots & Broncos
I just don’t get the line when it comes to this game. If Bo Nix was in, I feel as if this line would be a basically pickem either way. Instead, because Bo Nix is out, this line has been around -4.5 or -5.5 points all week. I don’t think Nix is worth that many points is basically where I’m getting at. To go along with that, I am very nervous about how the Denver Broncos defense has started to slip a little bit as the game went on last week. As for the other side, I am nervous about the left side of the Patriots offensive line, as they had a welcome to the NFL moment last week.
I think this game will ultimately come down to the player Drake Maye. If he is as careless as he was with the ball last week, then he’s probably going to put the Patriots in a lot of bad spots. The same could take place if he starts out slow like he tends to do from time to time. Getting Mack Hollins back will be a huge edition for the Patriots, especially in the run game, so I like for the Patriots to at least win the game. I am nervous about the cover, but I like for them to win.
Official bet: Patriots -3.5 (-118)
Rams & Seahawks
This will be the trilogy matchup, and the series is currently tied one to one. The series honestly should’ve been two zip in the Rams favor, but they choked away the game the last time these two played. When it comes to this season games in totality, the Rams were the ones who played the Seattle Seahawks the best. While I am a bit nervous about how shaking the Rams have looked the last couple of games, I just think that they have a good chance of beating the Seattle Seahawks defense. I said this a couple weeks ago and I’ll say it again, when it comes to trust between Sam Darnold and Mathew Stafford, I am going take Matthew Stafford. Another big thing is Zach Charbonnet is a better pass blocker than Kenneth Walker, so the loss of Charbonnet could be a big factor. 
This is very basic analysis, but I truly think this game will come down to the quarterback battle. It’s going to come down to who can be more careful with the ball and take advantage of the opportunities given. For me, this is one of those games where every turnover or swing momentum change could be the dagger that puts away the other team. Who can be resilient enough to fight back and find a way to win?
Official bet: Rams +2.5 (-118)
Props
When it comes to the Patriots & Broncos game, I am pretty much going to be staying away from Denver Broncos props. I just have zero clue what Jarrett Stidham is going to do, so I’d rather just stick to taking some of the Patriot props I feel a bit more comfortable taking.
– Hunter Henry over 40+ receiving yards (-118)
– Mack Hollins over 25+ receiving yards (-128)
– TreVeyon Henderson longest rush over 10.5 yards (-114)
– TreVeyon Henderson over 33.5 rushing yards (-112)
– Drake Maye longest rush over 12.5 yards (-114)
– Rhamondre Stevenson longest reception over 10.5 yards (-118)
For the Rams & Seahawks game, I think I’m going to go heavy on the touchdown scorers, and then take two or three props with either side. Based on last matchup, these teams have proven they can score and put up offense, it’s just going come down to can they do it again? I am gonna be attacking this from the receiving game aspect.
– JSN over 6.5 receptions (-116)
– Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions (-118)
– Kyren Williams over 13.5 receiving yards (-112)
Anytime touchdown scorers
As for anytime touchdown scorers in these two games, I like:
Hunter Henry (+200), Rhamondre Stevenson (+130), Colby Parkinson (+320), Kenneth Walker (-140), Davante Adams (+135), Kyren Williams (+130), JSN (+100), & finally Cooper Kupp (+310)
Parnell’s Nasty Boy Parlay Play of the Day
For the Patriots & Broncos game, I was able to get odds of +885 boosted to +1327 with a 50% boost:
- Austin Hooper over 10+ recieving yards (-122)
- Hunter Henry over 40+ receiving yards (-118)
- Mack Hollins over 25+ receiving yards (-128)
- Jarrett Stidham over 15+ rushing yards (-114)
For the Rams & Seahawks game, I was able to get odds of +1001 boosted to +1320 with a 30% boost:
- Colby Parkinson anytime touchdown (+320)
- Puka Nacua 7+ receptions (-235)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions (-116)
- Matter Stafford over 2+ pass touchdowns (-130)
Let’s have a DAY! PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY!
Jaden Chandler-Parnell, or “JC” is a Sports & Sports Betting Analyst for Stare Down Sports. You can Follow him on X @Jaden95Chandler and on YouTube
Betting Record
College Football straights record (regular season): 33-37-1
Pickem Record: 175-96-1
(straights) NFL Bets [regular season] 53-52
(Touchdown scorers) NFL Bets [regular season] 75-80
(Player Props) NFL Bets [regular season] 111-97
$10 Nasty Boy Play (College) : 0-19 {down 19u}
$10 Nasty Boy Play (NFL) 2-54 {down $252.68}
College Football Bowl Season & CFP: 22-7
NFL PLAYOFF (straights) 4-3
(Props) 13-11
(TD scorers) 7-13
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