The Cy Young award has been on my mind this week for a few reasons. The first being as a bettor holding tickets from May and June on Zac Gallen and Gerrit Cole. The second reason being as a fan whose favorite thing about his favorite sport is the Cy Young race.
This time of year in August, there are only three things on the mind of fans and futures bettors. Who can make a run at the wildcard spot, who is winning the world series (cough, Dodgers, cough), and who is winning the awards.
This season it seems we have a better idea than usual about the AL major awards. Ohtani for MVP, and the AL Cy Young seems to be Cole’s to lose. In the National League the MVP favorite is Acuna Jr., and by a lot.
Zac Gallen all season has been at the head of the NL Cy Young, although he has also had company all season. Whether it be Spencer Strider going toe to toe with him early on in the season or now in August a few other names throwing their hat in the pot.
One of those being Justin Steele
Zac Gallen just last night had a quality start against the Padres going 6.1 innings only giving up 1 run. Gallen is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, however names like Logan Webb, Blake Snell, and Justin Steele have had seasons that one could argue deserves that award as well.
Particular the latter name on that list, Justin Steele, who has had one of if not the best pitching performances all season up to this point. With 6 weeks left in season, what has to happen for him to win the award, what are his odds to win the award, and why he should be strongly considered to win the award of NL Cy Young.
Justin Steele has posted a record of 13-3 for the Chicago Cubs this season and has his team on the fringe of a playoff birth. His ERA is 2.79 over 22 starts with 15 of those starts being qualified a quality start.
Steele is currently numbered at +650 to win the award, fourth on the list. Now where he does have strong likability at a glance, let’s take a deeper caparison into him and Gallen’s numbers this season.
Zac Gallen vs Justin Steele
Zac Gallen has a record of 13-5 with an ERA of 3.17. On the surface compared to Steele’s you would lean his record and ERA. Yet a big factor in the Cy Young award is pitching deep into innings and therefore pitching a lot of innings, a lot of quality innings.
Which is what Gallen has done maybe better than anybody in the league. His 162 innings pitched compared to Steele’s 126 is more impressive. Also outside of ERA Gallen is better is every category including WHIP, WAR, and his K/9 numbers.
While Justin Steele could win a Cy Young award this year, it would be more of Gallen losing it and him being the next best option. As long as Gallen continues to pitched into the 7th inning and only give up 1 or 2 runs, he will end this season as the NL Cy Young award winner. He has been the best pitcher in the National League since the middle of July of 2022.
How much, if at all does the postseason matter? What if the Cubs make the wildcard, yet the Diamondbacks are on the outside looking in? Jistorically it has not matter more than innings pitch, yet, I still wonder.
I love to root for guys like Justin Steele and as a bettor this is the time of year where I might hedge my Gallen bet from May and June with a little Steele ticket. Maybe the stars align for the kid.
Rowan Donaghey is a Sports and Betting insider for Stare Down Sports. You can follow him on twitter via @RowanDonaghey
Follow Stare Down Sports on twitter for all of the latest news and updates @StareDownSports
Leave a Reply